The presidential election drama illustrates how Ireland is gripped by a form of political schizophrenia.
On one hand, the contest took place against a backdrop of rising anger at the unprecedented waves of mass immigration to the Republic.
Yet, in direct contradiction of this embittered, increasingly nationalist mood, Ireland is primed to vote overwhelmingly for the most Left-wing presidential candidate in its history.
In her radical socialism, vociferous support for minorities and hostility to Western ‘imperialism,’ the prospective new Head of the State, Catherine Connolly, represents precisely that spirit of wokeness that a large section of the Irish public is determined to challenge.
However massive Ms Connolly’s landslide, her triumph will be a recipe for more discord and disunity. Indeed, the electorate went to the polls after several nights of violent rioting in Dublin, triggered by reports that a ten-year-girl had been sexually assaulted by a failed African asylum seeker.
The clash was just the latest in a growing catalogue of inflammatory demonstrations against the open border stance of the ruling Coalition that has held power since 2020, made up of the two centrist parties Fianna Fail and Fine Gael.
Independent candidate Catherine Connolly (left) is set to win the race to become Irish president after Fine Gael runner Heather Humphreys conceded
Again, like in England, many of the most explosive protests have taken place outside former hotels now used to house asylum seekers. The sheer scale of the demographic change caused by immigration has also raised alarm. In each of the past four years, more than 100,000 newcomers have arrived – a huge influx for a small island with a population of just 5.5 million people.
But the anti-immigration movement will find no support from Ms Connolly, who is the embodiment of progressive sentimentality. A former psychologist and lawyer, she brings to the presidency all the predictable opinions of hard-Left groupthink, including antipathy towards Nato, and condemnation of Israel – which she has accused of perpetrating ‘genocide’ in Gaza. As a pacifist, she has called for the abolition of the Irish army, while she also backs the decriminalisation of drugs.
In fact, there are striking parallels between her rise and that of Jeremy Corbyn, Britain’s own radical maverick. Ms Connolly, like Corbyn, was a silver-haired veteran in her late-60s, without any experience of ministerial office, when she reached the top.
She, like he, also fell out with the Labour party. Having once been a leading Irish Labour politician in her native Galway, she resigned in 2007 over her perception that the party was blocking her ambitions. She subsequently won her seat in the Dail (the Irish Parliament) in 2016 and, as she looks set to do, the presidency as an independent.
Like Corbyn, she has a gift for generating combustible rows with her words and actions. Her recent comparison between increased German military spending and Nazi rearmament in the 1930s provoked widespread outrage, as did her visit to Syria under the Assad regime in 2018.
She is often described by colleagues in the Dail as personally ‘affable’ but politically ‘dogmatic and inflexible’ – again, reminiscent of the MP for Islington North.
Even the rhythms of their oratory are very similar, often repeating the same phrase with thudding regularity, such as ‘the normalisation of…’ be it ‘inequality’, ‘violence’ or ‘genocide’.
Ms Connolly – who is supported by the Left-wing parties of Ireland – says she is ‘absolutely delighted’ with the polling results
So how did this controversial figure emerge as near-enough president-elect?
This was the first two-horse race for half-a-century, and part of the answer lies in the weakness of her rival, Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys – who has conceded the election. She was handicapped by her Ulster Protestant heritage and relatives’ past membership of the sectarian Orange Order.
On the campaign trail, Ms Humphreys emerged as a poor debater and speaker with little command of the Irish language, whereas Ms Connolly, former barrister, was fluent on every stage in either English or Gaelic.
In addition, Ms Humphries’ stress on her establishment credentials as a long-serving minister only boosted her opponent’s status as an outsider.
Despite her rigid socialism, Ms Connolly proved a surprisingly deft operator, holding together a volatile, Left-wing alliance of support that embraced Labour, the Communists, Sinn Fein, the Greens and the Social Democrats. She was just as skilful in her use of social media, too, which revealed parts of her character beyond the politician.
One post – which went globally viral – showed her impressive skills in football and basketball. Her sporting prowess was also put in the spotlight through revelations about her heroic long-distance running, where she achieved a highly creditable personal best in the marathon of 3 hours 36 minutes.
This was part of an inspiring back story that enhanced her popular appeal. Born on the outskirts of Galway, she was one of 13 siblings and from the age of nine – when her mother died – was brought up by her father, a carpenter and boat-builder. She described him as a quiet man of principle who taught her not to prejudice marginalised groups such as travellers and migrants.
Her early faith in socialism was also fostered by her involvement with the Legion of Mary, a worldwide Catholic organisation that encourages voluntary work.
A mural of Ms Connolly sits beside the waterways of Dublin, the capital of Ireland
At home, she has been married for 33 years and has two grown-up sons. But the pressures on her family will now intensify. As President, her job will be largely ceremonial, but she will have important political powers, such as the right to appoint the Taoiseach (Prime Minister), dissolve or summon Parliament and choose other senior members of the Government. She will also be Ireland’s representative to the world.
That explains why the position has had such constitutional importance in the Republic’s history. When Ireland first gained autonomy from Britain in 1921, the Head of State was still the English sovereign, something that deeply offended the Republican movement which had fought so long for full independence.
But, as Taoiseach from 1932, the wily Republican leader Eamon De Valera embarked on a process of gradually dismantling the apparatus of royal influence. In 1937, he took the step of abolishing the quasi-colonial position of Governor-General, replacing it with a president – the respected academic Douglas Hyde. Ireland became a fully fledged Republic in 1949 and the presidency diminished in importance, becoming a kind of retirement award for senior politicians from the dominant Fianna Fail party.
But all that changed in 1990 with the election of Labour lawyer Mary Robinson, the first non-Fianna Fail and the first female president. Though many found her sanctimonious, she brought a new international profile to the role, especially through her work on human rights. Her platitudinous, earnest manner set the tone for future presidents, which her two immediate successors, Mary McAleese (another lawyer) and Michael Higgins (a politician and poet) eagerly bought into.
Dripping with moral righteousness, this kind of leadership is the prime reason why the Irish political class is seen as one of the most woke in the world. And Ms Connolly will just accelerate that trend.
