Centrist D66 party provisionally expected to win most seats, but ‘too close to call’
Centrist D66 party is expected to win the most seats in the new parliament, with 27 mandates – up from just nine in 2023, NOS exit poll has showed.
Wilders’ PVV is projected to come second with 25 seats, 12 down from 2023.
VVD is projected third with 23, GroenLinks-PvDA fourth with 20, and CDA fifth with 19.
The exit poll has the margin error of up to three seats, so NOS says it’s “too close to call”.
Key events
Wilders concedes PVV party unlikely to be part of next government
Geert Wilders is now speaking to reporters, reacting to tonight’s vote and answering their questions.
He concedes his party will probably not be part of the new government if D66 is confirmed as the election winner, but insists the decision to leave the previous government – and trigger the vote – was still correct and he doesn’t regret it.
Senay Boztas
in Rotterdam
Earlier, a sigh went around the room of the GL/PvdA’s election night when the result was announced.
Annecornelie de Pont, who organises party campaigning in Amstelveen, was disappointed.
“I didn’t expect it,” she said. “Jetten and Bontenbal were the new kids on the block but Timmermans is the most experienced politician,” she added, speaking before his resignation.
She said, though, that the party would make the best of the result and are likely to be part of the next government.
Timmermans resigns as GroenLinks-PvDA leader
GroenLinks-PvdA’s leader and former EU commissioner Frans Timmermans has resigned from his post in a speech responding to first exit poll.
He said he had to take “full responsibility” for the lower than expected result, with party going down from 25 to 20 seats, and added: “It is time for me to take a step back and hand over the leadership of our movement to the next generation.
“We have so much incredible talent in the parliamentary group that will soon be entering the house.”
Wilders concedes party ‘hoped for different outcome’
PVV’s Wilders has offered his first reaction to the vote on X, conceding that “the party had hoped for a different outcome, but we stood our ground”.
“We are more determined to fight than ever and still the second and perhaps even largest party of the Netherlands,” he said.
D66’s upward trend ‘clearly accelerated’ with ‘obvious’ coalition emerging – comment
Reacting to the exit poll, the Centre for European Reform’s senior research fellow Armida van Rij told the Guardian:
“Clearly D66’s upward trend accelerated. The firewall being brought back around the PVV may have turned voters off and brought them to JA21 in particular.
“The most obvious coalition based on the numbers would be D66, VVD, GL/PVDA, CDA … but that will take a long time as VVD leader Yeşilgöz has repeatedly said she wanted a rightwing coalition.”
Van Rij said that VVD’s better-than-expected result could save Yeşilgöz’s future, as previous polls had suggested the party could lose more seats.
“Her staying will have implications for the negotiations as she has brought the VVD far closer to the Freedom party on policies, especially immigration,” she said.
On the left, “GL/PvdA losing five seats is unexpected and may make Timmermans’s future as party leader uncertain”, she said.
“But as ever, to some extent elections and electoral success is measured by expectations, and that’s the case here too.”
Win for ‘positive, constructive’ politics, but coalition talks will be ‘tricky’ – comment
Commenting on the exit poll, Rem Korteweg, a senior fellow at the Clingendael Institute in The Hague, told the Guardian that “when it comes to forming a new government in the Netherlands, election results are not the end, they’re the start”.
He says:
“The results are in and the cards have been shuffled. Now the negotiations can begin.
Liberal D66 emerges as the big winner, having benefited substantially in the final weeks of the campaign. It is quite a surprise. Rob Jetten now has a big chance to be the country’s youngest prime minister (and the first openly gay one).
CDA wins big as well and finds itself in the role of a kingmaker, able to leverage its position between the rightwing VVD and leftwing GreenLeft/Labour.
Other surprise though is how well the VVD did, given what the polls looked like earlier.”
Korteweg added that Wilders, in second, will now lead the opposition, “a place he has been comfortable with over the years”.
He also confirms our earlier calculations (21:29) that “there is one most-likely option for a coalition government: a four-party coalition of centrist parties led by D66”.
Korteweg says that “with four parties, coalition talks will be tricky” as the parties “share a common resolve to exclude Wilders from power, but disagree on other things such as migration, fixing the housing crisis, reducing emissions and how to pay for additional defence spending”.
He adds:
“A more positive, constructive approach to politics has prevailed in this campaign, as voters have signalled they are fed up with the internal mudslinging and ineffectual chaos that has defined government over the previous 11 months.”
No changes in updated exit poll
The updated exit poll at 9.30pm local time shows the main projections unchanged, with D66 still expected to come first, ahead of Wilders’ PVV.
The error margin is now down to “one, maximum two” seats, NOS said, but in this case it is just enough to still reshuffle the first three positions a bit.
So, it remains too close to call at this stage.
First potential coalition scenarios emerge
Jakub Krupa
Dutch broadcaster NOS just showed some potential coalition scenarios for a D66-led government, including a scenario in which they team up with GL/PvdA, VVD and CDA (potentially having 89 out of 150 votes in the new parliament), or an alternative with VVD, CDA and JA21, which the exit poll has at nine seats, getting it just over the line with 78 seats.
But there appears to a path to securing the majority without the participation of the far right.
But, but, but – as said earlier – it’s still very early days, and the process will take months.
If only it was as easy as just adding numbers up on paper!
D66 supporters erupt in joy after first exit poll results
And here is D66’s leader, Rob Jetten, arriving at the results party earlier tonight …
If you’re wondering just how difficult the coalition talks could get in the coming months, the exit poll suggests there may be as many as 15 parties in the next parliament.
Jakub Krupa
I just need to stress our usual caveat applicable to all election nights, but even more important tonight as the complex setup makes it really difficult to make perfect predictions: this is only the exit poll, and it has a margin of error that makes it effectively “too close to call”.
If D66 is confirmed as the largest party in the next parliament, it will be a historic result for them – the party has never been in that position before, AD notes.
Centrist D66 party provisionally expected to win most seats, but ‘too close to call’
Centrist D66 party is expected to win the most seats in the new parliament, with 27 mandates – up from just nine in 2023, NOS exit poll has showed.
Wilders’ PVV is projected to come second with 25 seats, 12 down from 2023.
VVD is projected third with 23, GroenLinks-PvDA fourth with 20, and CDA fifth with 19.
The exit poll has the margin error of up to three seats, so NOS says it’s “too close to call”.
Jakub Krupa
The exit poll is imminent now.
I will bring you the numbers as soon as we have them.
‘Neck and neck race’ between four parties, pollster says
Senay Boztas
Pollster Bart Koenen, who works for Verian on polls for EenVandaag, told the Guardian a bit earlier that the result was on a knife-edge.
“It’s going to be exciting.
The two national polls that followed ours showed the PVV is in decline and that it’s going to be a neck and neck race between the PVV, PvdA/GL, CDA, and D66.”
Senay Boztas
in Rotterdam
Lisa Vliegenthart, 32, from Rijswijk and 27th on the list for election for GreenLeft-PvdA, said that she came from a family of PVV voters who believed that it was no longer the answer.
“I come from a typical working-class family. My father is a tram driver, my mother works in a nursery and my brother in the building industry – it’s a typical example.
“I come from a family that used to feel seen and heard by Wilders – but for some years has realised this is not the way. The way is to do it together, to have solidarity with each other. And I see that in the story of GreenLeft and the PvdA coming together. I am hearing that people really believe in this.”
Mart, a party volunteer who did not want to give his second name, said it might be tricky to know the final result until the definitive count. “It is so close, we will probably know tomorrow morning,” he said.
It’s a tense time.”
