Key events
Plaid wins byelection
Plaid candidate Lindsay Whittle has been announced as the byelection winner.
The byelection candidates are being summoned to the stage at the Caerphilly leisure centre – a result could be immindent.
Steven Morris
Reform UK candidate Llŷr Powell denied the campaign had been all about immigration.
He said: “My campaign has been about government policies and where best to put money into Caerphilly.”
Powell said Reform had learnt a lot about campaigning, which would be put to good use at next year’s full Senedd elections.
When you look at where we started, we had a blank slate. We had to go out there and find a lot of voters. We found a lot of support. It’s been a great campaign. The collapse of the Labour vote is there for everyone to see. It’s been a betrayal what Labour has done around here.
Going into next year we’re in a really good place. A big part of what we were trying to do here is to master our campaigning. We’ve trained so many people up on our systems. We’re now a grassroots campaigning party.
There’s been some tough elements. The front door of my home was kicked in. Glue was put in the campaign office locks. It’s sad our democratic process has come under attack. My activists spoke to thousands of people despite the smears, fears and attacks.
Here are some of the latest images coming in during the vote count amid suggestions the Caerphilly result will be in within an hour and perhaps even half that.
Steven Morris
The Plaid leader, Rhun ap Iorwerth, has arrived at the count, a sign that his party has done well.
We’re told Reform UK leader Nigel Farage won’t be here.
Steven Morris
The Plaid candidate, Lindsay Whittle, said it had been an exciting campaign for him and his party.
I’ve had young people having selfies with me. One youngster jumped out of a car and told me I was his hero. That made me feel six-foot tall.
Whittle was also keen to pay tribute to Hefin David, whose sudden death in the summer led to the byelection.
Whittle knew David well and remembers a visit to Caerphilly’s twin town in Germany. It was cold and David needed to buy a new coat.
“I hate shopping but I went with him,” Whittle said.
Eventually they found a coat together. It led Whittle to nickname him “The man from C&A” after the fashion brand.
“He was a good man,” Whittle said.
Reform UK candidate Llyr Powell says he has been subjected to “attacks” on his property and office during the byelection campaign.
“It’s quite sad that our democratic process has come under attack from a militant group out there,” Powell told the BBC at the Caerphilly counting centre, adding that he was “proud” of the campaign he and his team had run.
He was also asked about an instance at the byelection debate when an audience member said Reform’s “rhetoric” had made her family feel “unwelcome” in the town.
Powell told the broadcaster he was “surprised” by the remark because his campaign “has been about government policies and where best to put money”.
Steven Morris
The UK-wide significance of the election is shown in the number of journalists at the count in a leisure centre in Caerphilly – 83 were accredited.
“Usually we have the local BBC and the Caerphilly Observer,” said one party worker.
Voter turnout tops 50%
The Caerphilly byelection turnout was 50.43%, according to reports, with a total of 33,736 constituency ballot papers being included in the count.
The turnout figure is being described as a historic high for a Senedd byelection and for a Welsh devolved byelection.
PA Media says the 50.43% turnout contrasts with the figure for the 2018 Alyn and Deeside byelection at just 29.1%.
That was the last Senedd byelection before the death of Labour MS Hefin David triggered the poll in Caerphilly.
Overall turnout, excluding spoilt or disallowed ballot papers, in the 2021 Senedd elections was 46.6%.
There has never been a national turnout higher than 50%.
Speaking at the Caerphilly byelection count, Delyth Jewell, deputy leader of Plaid Cymru, said she felt “excited and frightened”.
I still feel so excited about the campaign that we ran, I think it’s been a really energetic campaign.
I feel excited and frightened at the same time, and I wish there were a word for those things together, because there are two very starkly different scenarios ahead of us.
One of them is going to unfold in the next few hours, either we will see Plaid Cymru emerging as the party that’s won this byelection or Reform, and it’s been obvious the whole time it was one or the other.
PA Media also quoted Jewell as saying:
No matter what way this goes, it’s going to be clear to voters in Wales that the only progressive party for the future of Wales is Plaid Cymru. We are also the only party that will be able to beat Reform.
The momentum is with us, so no matter what happens in this byelection tonight, I think people’s minds will be focused.
Labour has long held the Caerphilly Senedd and Westminster constituencies but, unless opinion polling is wide of the mark, the party is likely to be beaten into third this week with either Plaid or Reform UK seizing the Welsh parliament seat.
As Steven Morris has reported, Plaid appeared to be picking up Labour votes disenchanted with the party’s performance both in Cardiff and Westminster while Reform hoovered up traditional Conservative voters and those impressed by its promises to end what it calls the “mass immigration agenda” of the other two parties.
The Plaid Cymru candidate, Lindsay Whittle, who has been a local councillor for half a century, wants to win for two reasons – to further the cause of his beloved Plaid and to keep out Reform.
“Labour is facing annihilation,” he said. “The Labour tree has finally died. The roots have gone and it’s dead.”
If Labour loses in Caerphilly it will be a huge blow for the party that has dominated politics in Wales for a century. It faces an even bigger challenge next year when full Senedd elections take place.
If it loses control of the Welsh government – and Reform does well – it will be seen as a signal of political transformation in the UK.
Labour, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK braced for results of Caerphilly byelection
Hello and welcome to our live coverage as political leaders brace for the results of a byelection in Caerphilly that could mark a historic shift in Welsh politics.
Labour has run the Senedd (Welsh parliament) since the devolved administration was established in 1999, and Caerphilly has been one of its strongholds. But opposition parties hoping to form the next Welsh government have run fierce campaigns in the south Wales constituency.
In early polling before the vote, Plaid Cymru and Reform UK were forecast to be the two biggest parties in Wales next year. The result in Caerphilly could be a bellwether for the Senedd election in May and is likely to be treated as such by the victorious party.
The byelection also comes in the run-up to a vote on the next Welsh government budget, which has heaped even more pressure on the Labour campaign. When passing its budget in March, the government needed the help of an opposition member to get it through.
While Labour is the largest party in the Senedd, it does not have a majority, and the budget vote in January could be even more difficult if the party loses the Caerphilly seat.
Nigel Farage pledged to “throw everything” at the campaign in backing the Reform UK candidate, Llyr Powell. Plaid Cymru’s candidate, Lindsay Whittle, is a longstanding councillor in the Penyrheol ward and the leader of the group on Caerphilly council. The Labour candidate is Richard Tunnicliffe, a financial analyst and publisher.
The candidates fielded by other parties are Gareth Potter for the Conservatives, Gareth Hughes for the Greens, and Anthony Cook for Gwlad, a pro-independence party. Steve Aicheler is running for the Liberal Democrats and Roger Quilliam is the candidate for Ukip.
The byelection was called after the death of Hefin Wyn David, a Labour politician who was first elected in Caerphilly in 2016. There will be an inquest into his death in April.
